Black Friday Deal Fatigue: Why Every Offer Needs a Purpose

Black Friday used to give shoppers a clear reason to buy NOW, and marketers could plan a holiday campaign around one weekend. That is changing as retailers launch deals weeks before the traditional shopping weekend. The shift also changes how shoppers respond.

Some shoppers may tune out the constant promotions, which people call Black Friday deal fatigue. For brands, though, the larger commercial risk is that repeated discounts weaken the reason to buy now and make margin harder to protect. Every discount comes out of the brand’s margin, and a longer run of deals gives shoppers more time to wait for a better one.

Black Friday is becoming ‘Black Months’

The shift is visible on the October calendar. Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days overlapped with fall sales from Target and Walmart in the first full week of October. Lowe’s has announced that its Black Friday deals start Oct. 29, about four weeks before Black Friday. Together, they stretch one shopping weekend into a season. What happens to the urgency that once made Black Friday work?

Budgets are part of the answer. The National Retail Federation (NRF) says affordability is a top concern, so shoppers are meeting that longer calendar with tight budgets.

Shoppers have more time to hunt for deals

A longer run of deals gives budget-conscious shoppers more time to be selective. Three behaviors can matter to marketers.

• Comparing prices. Shoppers can check the same item across retailers before buying. Someone pricing a vacuum cleaner, for example, can compare several retailers in minutes, so an early offer competes with every deal live that week.
• Waiting for better offers. NRF’s Oct. 1 to 7 survey of 8,094 adults found 64% likely to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their shopping. Say a shopper who sees a television discounted in October may hold out for a deeper cut near Black Friday. That removes the urgency to buy at the first discount.
• Trading down. A shopper who usually buys one brand of running shoes, for example, may pick a cheaper brand’s sale pair. A brand that holds its price may lose that sale, and a brand that matches the discount may give up margin.

Give every stage of the season a clear purpose

Cutting early promotions entirely would leave the brand competing on Black Friday alone, when every retailer is advertising deals. A better plan gives each stage of the season its own purpose.

1. Use narrow, targeted offers early

An early offer needs two things: a defined purpose and a relevant audience, such as existing customers or one product category. A skincare brand, for example, could offer loyalty members a gift set in late October and keep its sitewide sale for later. Lowe’s has announced early online access to Black Friday doorbusters for MyLowe’s Rewards members, a day before the public.

2. Give Black Friday a distinct role

After weeks of offers, Black Friday needs a reason to stand out. Many shoppers already say they are likely to wait for Thanksgiving weekend. A brand that saves its clearest offer for that window gives them a reason to act then. An electronics brand, for example, could keep its deepest discount for Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday and run one headline offer instead of several small ones.

3. Plan one seasonal calendar

For each offer, decide what it is doing. It may bring a purchase forward or protect demand the brand already has. Judge results across the whole season, including sales in the weeks after an offer ends. Compare them with a baseline, such as a holdout group of customers who did not get the offer. Campaigns that mainly pull purchases earlier should not take budget from Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Every offer needs a reason to exist

When every brand is discounting, the reason to buy matters more than the discount.

The reason has to come from the offer itself: who it is for, what it includes and why it lands in that window. Early offers earn their place by reaching the right customers. Black Friday earns its place by giving shoppers something the weeks before did not.

Before Nov. 27, write down what each offer on the calendar is meant to achieve and why a shopper should buy in that window. An offer without a clear answer is a discount the brand pays for without a reason.