Pickup in PC Shipments Expected

There are signs that worldwide demand for personal computers will accelerate during the second half of 2003.

Global personal computer shipments are expected to reach 33.2 million units for the first quarter of 2003, a 4.8 percent increase over the first quarter of 2002, according to Dataquest, a unit of Gartner Inc.

But Dataquest expects an increase in demand during the second half of 2003, stating that it expects PC shipments to reach 138.7 million units, or a 7.9 percent increase over shipments for 2002.

While Dataquest admits the pace of economic recovery and the possibility of war with Iraq, could impact the level of PC demand, both by consumers and corporate customers.

Dataquest PC analysts say there are few compelling reasons for customers to upgrade to a new computer. For that reason, price is the main driver for PC purchases, as most existing computers have sufficient processing and memory power to conduct the most popular PC applications: email, Web surfing and word processing.

The Dataquest PC shipment report said that many corporate customers are deferring PC purchases, as a result of layoffs that have allowed them to rotate used PCs to new employees. The report went on to say that instead of buying new machines, many IT departments are replacing components and refurbishing existing PCs.

But Dataquest does say there are signs that many corporate customers may be entering a new PC replacement cycle. Many companies made changes in the run up to the year 2000, now those machines are getting old. Dataquest says it expects “strong growth in the U.S. large accounts in the fourth quarter of 2002 may indicate a beginning of PC replacement cycle,” according to a company press release.

In a separate Dataquest study released in early February 2003, the company said Asia-Pacific shipments grew by 9 percent in 2002. The report said that PC shipments in the Asia-Pacific region reached 21.7 million units in 2002, an 8.6 percent increase over 2001. Growth for the worldwide PC market in 2002 was only 3 percent.

Asia/Pacific PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 2002 (Units)
Company	2002 Shipments	2002 Market Share (%)	2001 Shipments	2001 Market Share (%)	Growth (%)
Legend	2,463,733	11.4	2,300,759	11.5	7.1
Hewlett-Packard	2,252,279	10.4	2,187,299	11.0	3.0
IBM	1,546,624	7.1	1,458,011	7.3	6.1
Dell	1,225,365	5.7	996,147	5.0	23.0
Samsung Electronics	1,211,024	5.6	1,221,300	6.1	-0.8
Others	12,965,729	59.8	11,778,012	59.1	10.1
Total	21,664,754	100.0	19,941,528	100.0	8.6
Note: Hewlett-Packard and Compaq are reported as one company.
Source: Nielsen//NetRatings